Climate Change and its Impact on Displacement in Afghanistan: challenges and pathways to resilience

Climate change, considered by long-term variation in the degree of warmth, rainfall trends, and the occurrence of extreme weather events, has become a key significant challenge of our time. Even though the consequences are felt across the globe, some areas are more vulnerable than others. Afghanistan, a land with a deeply intricate historical background defined by ongoing conflict and socio-economic challenges, is considered one of the nations most at risk from the impacts of climate change globally despite its limited contribution to the worldwide (GHG) greenhouse gas emissions (Zhou et al. 2023) (Přívara, A., & Přívarová, M. 2019).

Over the past decades, Afghanistan has been experiencing rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and devastating floods that have worsened vulnerabilities from the past and caused an unprecedented level of internal displacement. It is a vicious circle: climate change exacerbates poverty, undermines livelihoods, and widens social fault lines that force families to flee their homes. (Holloway, K., Ullah, Z., Ahmadi, D. et al. 2022). According to the Migration Policy Institute, climate change has prompted forced migration across international boundaries and from rural areas to urban centers, with many Afghans seeking refuge and secure employment opportunities in neighboring countries. (Sayed, N., & Sadat, S.H.2023).

1. Climate change in Afghanistan

Within the past hundred years, the weather pattern of Afghanistan has changed radically. From 1950 to 2010, this country saw an increase of 1.8 degrees Celsius in its average yearly temperature about double the global increase. By 2050, this increase is predicted to reach between 1.7 degrees Celsius and 2.3 degrees Celsius, with significant effects on the environment and human welfare (Zhou et al., 2023).

Escalating temperature and water shortage: Agriculture in Afghanistan relies heavily on seasonal rainfall and snowmelt and accounts for approximately 80% of the population’s livelihoods. With rising temperatures, evapotranspiration increases, which diminishes the levels of groundwater, thus creating water stress. Large losses in snow cover and glacial volume have already been observed in the Hindu Kush, an important source of water (Zhou et al., 2023).

Increased frequency of natural disasters: unpredictable weather patterns, floods, and droughts are becoming commonplace. Between 2000 and 2021, Afghanistan experienced six significant droughts, each of which resulted in extensive crop failures and water shortages. At the same time, towns have been ravaged by floods that have destroyed homes, farmlands, and infrastructure due to unpredictable precipitation and decreased soil absorption (Přívara, A., & Přívarová, M. 2019).

Fragile socio-ecological systems: For more than four decades, war has destroyed the natural resources of Afghanistan, making the country much more vulnerable to climate shock. There is a decrease in arable land due to soil erosion and deforestation coupled with overgrazing, while water systems not being managed properly have exacerbated further impacts brought by drought and flood. Looking at these issues, the aforementioned regions saw decreased production through either pastoralism or rainfed farming, which also brings rural-to-urban migration (Holloway, K., Ullah, Z., Ahmadi, D. et al. 2022).

2. How climate change causes displacement

Several factors cause displacement due to climate change:

Natural Disasters: Communities are directly forced to migrate as a result of extreme weather disasters like floods and droughts. Over 400,000 people were displaced by the 2018 drought, mostly from rural areas to metropolitan areas like Herat. Families are forced to seek safety elsewhere as a result of these occurrences, these events not only demolish homes but also take away the means of subsistence (Holloway, K., Ullah, Z., Ahmadi, D. et al., 2022).

Resource Scarcity and its impact on livelihood and displacement: The shrinking agricultural production and declining supplies of fresh water have raised competition for life-dependent resources. Scarcity of water and a lack of fertile land have displaced some families from ancestral lands in areas where farming and livestock were the people’s major source of livelihood. In many instances, this kind of displacement results in congestion in receiving areas that are not well-equipped with proper infrastructure to handle the coming-in people (Zhou et al., 2023).

Adding to the Conflict: Climate stress often amplifies preexisting social and economic vulnerabilities. Competition for basic resources such as land and water has increased conflicts between communities in Afghanistan, which have sometimes developed into minor wars. Climate change and conflict create a feedback loop that contributes to further destabilization of affected regions and displaces people (Přívara, A., & Přívarová, M. 2019).

3. Climate change impact on people

Both displaced people and host communities are impacted by the wide-ranging effects of climate-induced displacement:

Challenges for Displaced Families: Displaced families often live in abject poverty and without even the basic structures of clean water, health, and education. Moreover, people who moved into cities have lived in unsanitary camps or informal settlements; therefore, they have risks for sickness and harsh weather conditions (Holloway, K., Ullah, Z., Ahmadi, D. et al., 2022).

The strain on urban areas: There is immense pressure on housing, infrastructure, as well as social services in a city like Herat; it has hosted a large population of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Due to the rapid urbanization, both IDPS and host communities are in a state of vulnerability where unemployment and scarcity enhance further. (Přívara, A., & Přívarová, M. 2019).

Vulnerabilities of women and children: In the case of displacement, more harm is faced by women and children. The employment opportunities for women are fewer, and they are much more prone to gender-based violence. Children, too, are affected by the long-term impacts of malnutrition and disruptions to their education (Save Children Afghanistan, extreme weather, n.d).

4. Solution and hope

To address refugee and displacement challenges resulting from climate change in Afghanistan, collaborative actions are crucial at the local, national, and international levels.

Investing in climate resilience: climate resilience investment includes restoration of degraded ecosystems, farming, and water management systems among the main activities. Communities in rural areas could develop resistance to the change of climate through adopting drought-resistant crops and adapting methods for the collection of rainwater (Zhou et al., 2023).

Strategies to address displacement: Authorities and aid agencies ought to dedicate priority to the requirements of internally displaced communities, or individuals who have been displaced from their places of residence. Such necessities involve covering healthcare, education, and long-term livelihoods. The main focus of policy should be on integrating displaced people into host communities and giving them the wherewithal to make a fresh start. It is important to know whether migration is temporary or permanent to effectively design the measures for reaction (Přívara, A., & Přívarová, M. 2019).

International Corporation: International assistance is required to take the intricate issues of Afghanistan forward. In that direction, international partnerships can provide financial inputs, policy advisories, and access to technical skills that promote climate resilience and reduce the chances of displacement. Accordingly, international cooperation ensures Afghan voices at international climate talks in taking up transboundary issues such as shared water resources (Hollway, K., Ullah, Z., Ahmadi, D. et al., (2022).

5. Recommendation

It is upon the international community and donors to ensure their voices are heard in order not to be displaced further by disasters and climatic change.

Sustainable development measures will be required to respond to the root causes of displacement, while durable solutions should be found for the affected communities.

Conclusion

Generally, climate change in Afghanistan is a main cause of displacement that heightens vulnerability to poverty and violence. Flooding, water shortages, and rising temperatures have already displaced people, and the consequences for rural and urban areas are catastrophic. While the infrastructure and resources are more at a stretch for metropolitan areas, internally displaced persons face hugely reduced access to very basic facilities.

For Afghanistan to address these numerous challenges, it especially needs huge investments in climate resilience, such as sustainable agriculture and efficient water management. Integrating internally displaced persons into host communities and securing long-term livelihoods are core policy goals that have to be pursued. International cooperation is of the essence in providing Afghanistan with financial and technical assistance to adapt to the climate.

The participatory actualization of climate change-induced displacement to attain a sustainable recovery requires collective input and increased engagement at all levels-local, national, and international.