Net Zero by 2050: Will Indonesia’s Actions Match Its Ambitions?

Indonesia’s commitment at COP29 to achieve net zero emissions before 2050 is a bold and ambitious step that reflects the country’s growing recognition of its role in the global fight against climate change. As one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, Indonesia faces a complex challenge in meeting its commitments. While the target is commendable, conflicting policy directions and statements by key government officials raise significant concerns about the feasibility of achieving it. These challenges demand urgent rethinking and a cohesive strategy to align development goals with climate imperatives.

The first central issue lies in President Prabowo Subianto’s recent statement regarding plans to expand palm oil plantations. Palm oil is a cornerstone of Indonesia’s economy, contributing approximately USD 20 billion annually to exports and providing employment for millions of people. However, its expansion has historically driven deforestation, biodiversity loss, and significant greenhouse gas emissions.

To reconcile economic and environmental priorities, the government should shift its focus from expansion to intensification. By improving productivity on existing plantations through sustainable practices and technology adoption, such as precision agriculture and the use of high-yield palm varieties, Indonesia can meet growing demand without further deforestation. The adoption of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certification must be scaled up to ensure sustainability across the sector. To support this policy, Indonesia could implement policy sequence, a combination of incentives, such as tax benefits for RSPO-compliant producers, and penalties for practices like illegal land clearing, to encourage broader adoption.

The second major challenge is the government’s food estate program also presents a significant hurdle to achieving net zero. The program, which seeks to expand agricultural land to enhance food security, will result in widespread deforestation, particularly in carbon-rich peatlands. The food estate program in Central Kalimantan, Merauke, and Keerom alone is estimated to require almost 3 million hectares of land, the majority of which comes from forest land.

Rather than expanding agricultural land, Indonesia should prioritize strengthening its agricultural sector through climate-smart solutions. Adopting advanced technologies such as precision farming, improved irrigation systems, and drought-resistant crop varieties can significantly enhance productivity on existing farmland. Addressing inefficiencies in the food supply chain, particularly by reducing food waste can also help meet domestic food needs without additional land conversion. Strengthening monitoring systems for the distribution of subsidized fertilizers and tightening regulations on land use conversion are essential steps to curb mismanagement and ensure resources are used effectively.

The last, and perhaps the most alarming policy direction comes from Forestry Minister Raja Juli Siregar, who announced plans to convert 20 million hectares of forest into agricultural land for food security. Such a move would undermine Indonesia’s climate commitments and decimate its forests, which serve as vital carbon sinks, regulate water cycles, and support biodiversity. The environmental cost of such large-scale deforestation would far outweigh the short-term benefits of increased agricultural land.

Instead, Indonesia should explore alternative approaches to food security that align with environmental goals. For instance, promoting agroforestry systems—where trees are integrated into agricultural landscapes—can enhance crop yields, improve soil health, and sequester carbon. Expanding regenerative agricultural practices that prioritize soil health and biodiversity can further contribute to sustainable food production. Financial mechanisms, such as green bonds and carbon credits, could incentivize farmers to adopt these sustainable practices while providing them with economic benefits. Indonesia must invest more in research and development to advance sustainable agriculture and technology transfer programs. Additionally, empowering local communities, particularly indigenous groups who possess extensive knowledge of sustainable land management, can further enhance these efforts.

Reflecting on these challenges, it is imperative for the Indonesian government to exercise caution in formulating and communicating their development programs, especially that intersect with environment and forest land conversion. The current trajectory of conflicting policy trends will make it difficult to bring Indonesia to meet its climate targets. Addressing these challenges requires not just policy adjustments but also a fundamental shift in governance. Achieving net zero before 2050 is more than a climate commitment for Indonesia—it is a necessity for securing the nation’s future.