Water diplomacy and Transboundary River (a climate challenge for Afghanistan)

Water diplomacy is a negotiation and management process of shared water resources across international borders, ensuring their equitable use on a sustainable basis. It is a process of amicable resolution of disputes over common water resources with the use of diplomatic tools. The main purpose of water diplomacy is to reduce disputes, enhance collaboration, achieve sustainable and equitable use of water resources, tackle shared concerns such as climate change, and enhance regional stability and sustainable development (Global Water Forum, 2018).

Focus on Afghanistan: Afghanistan is a landlocked South Asian country that is entirely dependent on its water resources, including its rivers, many of which are transboundary. The political, economic, and social stability of Afghanistan depends upon these resources. The misutilization and poor handling of such shared resources may result in social instability, environmental degradation, and tensions across borders. While the country heavily relies on these rivers for agriculture, drinking water, and energy, it cannot manage and share the water resources with its neighbors cooperatively. Taking into account the continuing water crisis in Afghanistan, exacerbated by climate change, cooperative and successful water resource diplomacy is necessary to deal with the pressing problems associated with water (Wafa, N., & Mazloum Yar, F. G., 2024).

Cross-border Rivers

Afghanistan shares four out of its five major river basins with neighboring countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Pakistan. Most of Afghanistan’s relations with riparian neighbors are influenced by these rivers; thus, regional cooperation for efficient water management is highly essential (Nori, S.M., 2020). The Amu Darya River is one of the longest rivers in Central Asia, naturally bounding Tajikistan and Turkmenistan (Duran Research and Analysis, 2015). The Harirud-Murgab River accounts for 12% of Afghanistan’s water resources, flowing through Iran and Turkmenistan and being a vital supply of water for Herat (Nori, S.M., 2020).

The Helmand is the largest river basin in Afghanistan and forms the border with Iran while providing irrigation (Yildiz, 2017; Thomas and Wright, 2015). The Kabul River, which contributes 26% of the Afghan water contribution, remains the source of tension with Pakistan since no agreement was signed on the usage of the river (Schroeder, 2015). This situation underlines how extremely important it is to find fair and durable agreements in order to contribute to peace and regional cooperation.

Neighboring nations involved

Afghanistan is a landlocked nation that shares multiple river basins with its neighbors, including Tajikistan, Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Water issues in downstream riparian states have been made worse by Afghanistan’s aspirations to build substantial water infrastructure on these transboundary rivers as part of its rehabilitation operations in order to fully utilize their potential for irrigation and hydroelectric power. There are limited direct institutional outlets for resolving these concerns because Afghanistan and its neighbors lack an official discussion process and effective water accords (King & Sturtewagen, 2010), (Climate Diplomacy; web, n.d). However, these nations’ different political agendas and approaches to water management can cause conflict and make it more difficult to distribute resources fairly.

Climate change and its impact

Afghanistan is considered the fourth most threatened or exposed region to climate change vulnerability. Escalating temperatures, diminishing snow, and unstable rainfall are the factors experienced across the country. 64 % of the households already suffering from drought, and projections show temperatures are going to be rise by 3 degrees Celsius, with 25% rainfall by 2050. These changes with a significant reduction in wheat, rice, and barley production present serious challenges for the agriculture sector.  As a result, these changes negatively affect food supplies, livelihoods, migration, and water resources or availability (Azizi, M. I., Xu, B., Kamara, M., & Rahmani, B. 2024).

Climate change impacts on water resources

Although the Hindu Kush Mountains are considered a natural reserve of freshwater due to their glaciers, these resources have declined throughout Afghanistan because of climate change and rising temperatures. The smallest ones have already vanished, and nearly 30 percent of the Pamir and Hindu Kush glaciers have disappeared in only the past 50 years. These trends will only intensify during the coming decades and hold serious implications for both the quantity and quality of water supply in Afghanistan. (Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), 19 Nov. 2024).

Predictions show that a warmer climate will likely alter the quantity and stream flow distribution into the shared watersheds, which, in turn, would probably further aggravate ongoing water-related pressures on the Helmand River and the Harirud. While long-term climate consequences cannot easily be predicted, consensus has existed in the scientific forecasts that parts of Iran and Afghanistan would suffer from potential, future long-term water stress because of glacial meltdown, reduced rainfalls, and rising temperatures during the years (Dehgan et al., 2014; McSweeney et al., 2010).

Challenges to Climate Diplomacy

Historical and political landscape: Afghan water diplomacy is essentially characterized by few formal agreements and a bundle of unresolved disputes. The root of the dispute over water resources between Iran and Afghanistan is in the Helmand River, dating from the 1800s. It has become one of the sources for radical discourses and has caused many conflicts for over a century, especially during times of drought. While there was indeed an agreement reached over the water in 1973 and even plans for water allocation and supply for about a hundred years, all these theoretical works did not turn into practice. This very situation has caused a border dispute between these two countries (Iran and Afghanistan) this May 2023. Historical disputes such as political instability in Afghanistan have interfered with establishing comprehensive frameworks that govern the sharing of waters (Kocatepe, D., 2024).

Regional instability: Despite sharing substantial resources with the five “stans” Afghanistan has been purposefully left out of regional water-sharing agreements because of its ongoing instability. Significantly, the Taliban’s 2021 resurgence in Afghanistan presents new difficulties for the water dynamics of the region (The Future of Central Asian Water Diplomacy, 2024).

Poor water management: Decades of poor management and a lack of investment in water infrastructure and supply lines have left less than 30% of the nation with access to quality water, and the country is currently experiencing a food and water crisis (Observer Research Foundation, 2021).

Climate change: As Afghanistan warms up, rainfall is increasingly irregular, and this causes flooding and drought simultaneously (Faizee and Schmeier, 2023).

Helmand River Treaty: There are disagreements on the terms of the 1973 Helmand River Treaty, and it has not been completely implemented (Nori, S. M. (2020).

Case study

A.  Afghanistan and Iran: The Helmand River is a critical water source for Afghanistan and Iran alike. Decades of disputes over water allocation have been exacerbated by the reduction in river flows due to climate change. even though the proposed actions, such as cooperative water monitoring programs intended to promote collaboration, have struggled to put into practice (Kocatepe, D., 2024).

B. Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Kabul River is a major resource for both countries. Disputes over the diversion of water and the construction of dams have led to tense relations. However, certain initiatives, such as the proposed Joint Commission on Water Resources, could provide better opportunities for diplomacy amidst these conflicts. Cooperation might increase if shared climate risks are addressed. Confidence-building and responding to mutual needs through joint investments in climate-resilient water infrastructure is one example. Such programs underline the importance of equitable benefit-sharing agreements and inclusive debate (Shams, A. K., & Muhammad, N. S. 2023).

Potential Measures and Solutions

Regional cooperation: For integrated water management, regional cooperation must be strengthened. Some of the measures undertaken towards this aspect are given as below:

Create basin-wide treaties and agreements based on principles of equitable use and reasonable water utilization.

Encourage joint water monitoring and full data sharing to ensure transparency and confidence-building.

Maintain multilateral dialogue at the chief level in international organizations.

Policy and Technological Fixes: The problems of water can be solved by advanced technologies and legislation in place.

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) supports holistic planning of water resources for meeting various demands.

Hydropower projects: For the complete utilization of water, construct small-scale hydropower infrastructure that is climate-resilient.

Policy recommendations

Strengthen Afghanistan’s institutional capacity and align water policies with international standards. In addition, prioritizing community-led initiatives in water governance can strengthen the voice of local stakeholders and ensure more sustainable outcomes. This approach not only increases resilience but also strengthens ownership of water management practices among affected populations.

Conclusion

Water diplomacy should be a means to overcome Afghanistan’s transboundary issues amid political turmoil, long-standing grievances, and the onset of climate change. As Afghanistan’s major livelihood activities, such as agriculture and energy supply, rely on shared rivers, it is essential to engage with its riparian neighbors. Cooperation can reduce tensions, along with agreements, improved institutional capacity, and integrated water resources management that are essential to achieving sustainable and equitable use.

The progress of Afghanistan, therefore, depends on investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and prioritizing regional collaboration. The involvement of the local people in water governance and building trust through increased transparency through cooperative monitoring and data sharing will enhance trust and resilience. Conversion of water-related issues into opportunities for peace and progress will lay the bedrock for long-term security and regional cooperation in Afghanistan.